Russian armor crossed into Donetsk and Luhansk under the banner of “peacekeepers.” The fiction fooled no one. The United States and Europe called it invasion, careful not to call it war.
The breakdown:
- Testing resolve. Putin massed troops on the border for months, betting the West would hesitate. The bet worked.
- Sanctions. Banks and elites took hits. None fast or wide enough to stall tanks already rolling.
- NATO. Unity existed, but it was brittle — fear stitched allies together more than vision.
Europe relies on Russian energy. Washington relies on avoiding quagmire. Ukraine relies on courage alone.
Deterrence without will is theater. Putin read the hesitation and moved. Diplomacy limped. Armor advanced.
The lesson: resolve advertised but not backed is invitation.